How'd I Do? 93rd Academy Awards Nominations Edition

I got 36 out of 43 in the top eight categories. That's 83.7%. Getting 19/20 in the acting categories made up for the fact that I went only 6/8 on Best Picture and 3/5 on Best Adapted Screenplay. I was right about only 8 Best Picture nominees, though.

My overall score was 77/102 (75.5%) After 5 straight years of improving my prediction accuracy, I have fallen back a bit.

Picture (6/8)

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

missed: The Father; Judas and the Black Messiah

predicted: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; One Night in Miami

93rd Academy Awards Nomination Predictions

Picture

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

How'd I Do? 92nd Academy Awards nominations edition

I nailed 39/44 (88.6%) in the top eight categories.
I got 17/20 in the acting categories, equal to 3 years ago and 1 better than the last two years.
Overall I got 87/109 (79.8%)

Picture 9/9

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Parasite

Marriage Story

Little Women

1917

The Irishman

Joker

Ford v. Ferrari

Jojo Rabbit

92nd Academy Awards nomination predictions

Picture

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Parasite

Marriage Story

Little Women

1917

The Irishman

Joker

Ford v. Ferrari

Jojo Rabbit

How'd I Do? 91st Academy Awards nominations edition

overall: 82/107 (76.6%) (exactly the same as last year)
top 8 categories: 36/44 (81.8%)
acting categories: 16/20 (same as last year)

Best Picture calling this 8/9. Though I nailed all 8 nominees, I predicted a ninth.

A Star Is Born

Bohemian Rhapsody

Roma

Black Panther

Green Book

BlacKkKlansman

The Favourite

Vice

predicted: If Beale Street Could Talk

Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Picture

A Star Is Born

Bohemian Rhapsody

Roma

Black Panther

Green Book

BlacKkKlansman

The Favourite

Vice

If Beale Street Could Talk

Director

Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron - Roma

Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite

Adam McKay - Vice

Actor

Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born

Christian Bale - Vice

Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody

John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman

Viggo Mortensen - Green Book

Actress

Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born

Glenn Close - The Wife

Olivia Colman - The Favourite

Yalitza Aparicio - Roma

Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Supporting Actor

Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born

Mahershala Ali - Green Book

Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman

Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy

Supporting Actress

Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk

Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

Emma Stone - The Favourite

Claire Foy - First Man

Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place

Adapted Screenplay

Black Panther

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BlacKkKlansman

Original Screenplay

Roma

The Favourite

Eighth Grade

Vice

First Reformed

Animated Feature

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Mirai

Production Design

The Favourite

Black Panther

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

Cinematography

Roma

First Man

Cold War

The Favourite

First Man

Costume Design

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Black Panther

Mary Queen of Scots

Bohemian Rhapsody

Film Editing

The Favourite
First Man

Roma
A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman

Makeup and Hairstyling
Bohemian Rhapsody
Vice
Black Panther

Sound Mixing
First Man
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
Roma
A Quiet Place

Sound Editing
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Ready Player One

Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
First Man
Ready Player One
Black Panther
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Original Score
If Beale Street Could Talk
First Man
BlacKkKlansman
Mary Poppins Returns
Isle of Dogs

Original Song
"Shallow" - A Star Is Born
"I'll Fight" - RBG
"Trip a Little Light Fantastic" - Mary Poppins Returns
"All the Stars" - Black Panther
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" - Mary Poppins Returns

Documentary Feature
Won't You Be My Neighbor
Three Identical Strangers
RBG
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Dark Money

Foreign Language Film
Roma
Shoplifters
Cold War
Capernaum
Never Look Away

90th Academy Awards - final predictions (all 24 categories)

Alongside my final predictions for tomorrow night's winners of the 90th Academy Awards, I'm including my initial predictions I made on the day of the nominations announcement, just to compare side-by-side how my thinking has changed (if at all) over the last six weeks.

Best Picture

The Shape of Water

I've waffled a little bit on this one, but ultimately I'm sticking to my guns. Three Billboards could upset, and there's a strong contingent predicting a win for Get Out. And Dunkirk has its supporters. But in the end, I think the fairy tale love story with the most nominations will win.

How'd I Do? 90th Academy Awards Edition

Top 8 categories: 35/44 (79.5%, so that's lower than the last two years)
Acting: 16/20
Overall: 82/107 (76.6%, definitely higher than the last three years and most likely my best ever)

Picture 7/9

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Shape of Water

Lady Bird

Dunkirk

Get Out

The Post

Call Me By Your Name

I missed: Darkest Hour; Phantom Thread
Predicted: I, Tonya; The Florida Project

Where I went wrong: I was unimpressed by Darkest Hour and thought it might miss on this nomination and I was just hopeful for The Florida Project. I never imagined Phantom Thread would be nominated.

90th Academy Awards Nomination Predictions

Ok, here we go with my nomination predictions for the 90th Academy Awards which will be announced the morning of January 23.

Predictions in all categories are listed in the likelihood I believe they have for a nomination

Picture

Let's start off with the deadlock guarantees:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Shape of Water

Lady Bird

Dunkirk

The category can have anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees. Since they started that practice for the 84th Awards there have always been either 8 or 9 nominees. Because of the preferential voting system the Academy uses in this category, it is very difficult to wind up with 10 nominees.

My next three are very safe bets:

Get Out

The Post

Call Me By Your Name

After that it gets murkier. I'm going with a 9 nominee field this year rounded out by:

I, Tonya

The Florida Project

I'm going out on a limb with that last one. Darkest Hour is probably more likely to be nominated than either of my last two picks and The Big Sick has a strong following, but I just can't believe enough people will stand behind those mediocre films masquerading as great.

89th Academy Awards - final predictions

Now that I've seen every single Oscar-nominated movie (with one small exception that I will get to before the show tonight), I'm ready to make my final predictions.

Picture

La La Land

Director

Damien Chazelle - La La Land

Quick Oscar Predictions for 89th Academy Awards (not final)

So these should not be considered my final predictions for the winners at the 89th Academy Awards, but my instinct upon the announcement of all the nominees.

Many of these predictions are likely to remain the same on my final list a few days before the ceremony and some will change. Some have already changed, in fact, but these are what I picked on January 24.

Picture

La La Land - it's got momentum and a lot of love. It's a happy story, it's vibrant and exciting. It's the kind of thing people want to vote for. Plus it's about Hollywood, which Hollywood loves.

Director

Damien Chazelle - La La Land - this choice may change over the next three weeks, but don't count on it. A significant part of what makes this movie so wonderful is Chazelle's direction.

Actress

Isabelle Huppert - Elle - because of her Golden Globe win (a bit of a surprise, actually), this is my snapshot impression, although I may go with another choice in the end as momentum swings in a different direction.

Actor

Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea - the smart money says he will win as he's won so many precursor awards, but this is shaping up to be unpredictable like the Best Actress category. Can't remember the last time there wasn't a foregone conclusion in at least one of the lead acting categories.

Supporting Actress

Viola Davis - Fences - unlikely to change

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali - Moonlight - unlikely to change

Original Screenplay

Manchester by the Sea - I could waver on this one, but probably not

Adapted Screenplay

Moonlight

Animated Feature

Moana - this could go another direction

Film Editing

La La Land

Production Design

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Cinematography

La La Land

Costume Design

La La Land

Original Score

La La Land

Original Song

"City of Stars" from La La Land

Makeup and Hairstyling

Suicide Squad

Sound Mixing

La La Land

Sound Editing

Hacksaw Ridge

Visual Effects

Doctor Strange

Foreign Language Film

The Salesman from Iran

Documentary Feature

13th

How'd I Do? 89th Academy Awards Edition

I scored 17/20 in the acting categories, which is 2 choices down from last year. In the top 8 (acting, directing, screenplay, and picture) I got 36/44. That's a minor statistical improvement over last year when I got 35/43. That's a jump from 81.3% to 81.8%.

Throughout the entire field I scored 79/107 or 73.8%

Picture 7/9

Arrival

Fences

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

I missed: Hacksaw Ridge and Hidden Figures
Predicted: Loving

89th Academy Awards Nomination Predictions

So on Tuesday morning the nominations will be announced for the 89th Academy Awards, which will then be awarded in a ceremony on February 26.

For now, here's how I have the nominees coming together in all but the short film categories.

Picture

There can, as usual, be anywhere from 5 - 10 nominees in this category.

First of all, there are the 5 that I consider absolute locks for nominations:

Arrival

Fences

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Following that I have a list of 5 more films in order of likelihood:

Lion

Loving

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

Silence

Now I'm predicting there will be 8 nominees, with Silence and Hidden Figures missing out after the others. I don't have high confidence in anything after Lion. Loving was a wonderful little movie, but maybe isn't drawing enough big attention to get nominated here. Hell or High Water is getting a lot of attention, but I didn't personally think it as great as many others do. Hidden Figures just isn't a very good movie by any stretch. It's not even as good as The Help, which received an undeserved Best Picture nomination several years ago. I really like Silence and it would be a deserving nominee but I wonder if it's going to connect with voters. As much as I admired it, I felt no emotional connection.

88th Academy Awards Prediction of All the Winners

So real quick and only a few hours before the ceremony begins, here are my final predictions. Every year I think tell myself I'm going to get this done weeks ahead of time and every year it ends up posted last minute. Oh well. Maybe next year.

So the broad stroke: Mad Max: Fury Road will not win Best Picture, but it will win the most awards, picking up almost a sweep of all its technical award nominations.

Picture - a month ago I had Spotlight as a lock on this and I think it's the best movie, but The Revenant has picked up a lot of steam and will take the top prize.

Director - the same is true for Iñárritu, who will repeat as best director, the first time in more than 60 years that it has happened. I went back and forth between him and George Miller as the veteran favorite who directed a stunning action film with lots of practical effects, but ultimately I think this is going to Alejandro.

Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio without doubt.

Actress - Brie Larson. I've known this for some time and I don't expect any surprises here.

Supporting Actor - Ugh, this is a tough one. I don't really think Christian Bale will win a second Oscar for this. Mark Ruffalo is bottom of the list. But The Revenant is hugely popular and Tom Hardy, an incredible actor who had an incredible year, could ride that wave. Sylvester Stallone could be the sentimental favorite here, repeating an iconic character of film history. But Stallone's career of giving terrible performances in terrible movies doesn't give him a lot of cachet. So I'm giving this to Mark Rylance by a nose.

Supporting Actress - Another tough acting category, but I think Alicia Vikander is a strong lock to win.

Original Screenplay - Spotlight will win the "consolation" prize.

Adapted Screenplay - The Big Short seems the most likely winner in this category. Spielberg movies don't often win screenplay awards, although Bridge of Spies was written by the Coen brothers.

Animated Feature - My choice would be for Anomalisa, but we're talking predictions here so Inside Out will take the crown back for Pixar.

Foreign Language Film - Son of Saul. No real competition here.

Documentary Feature - In recent years, this award has gone to the populist choice and this year that movie is the Amy Winehouse documentary Amy.

Film Editing - Mad Max: Fury Road

Production Design - Mad Max: Fury Road

Cinematography - Emmanuel Lubezki will win this award an unprecedented third time in a row for The Revenant and Roger Deakins will go home empty-handed, still having never won an Oscar after 13 nominations for stunning work.

Costume Design - I think this is a tough call and I think it's sort of going out on a limb to say Sandy Powell will win for Cinderella even it's the kind of work that traditionally wins this award. But I won't be surprised if either Mad Max or The Revenant wins.

Makeup and Hairstyling - Mad Max: Fury Road

Original Score - Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight

Original Song - This is pretty difficult to predict, but Lady Gaga is nominated so I'm going with her song co-written with perennial nominee (and never a winner) Diane Warren for "Til It Happens to You" from the documentary The Hunting Ground.

Sound - Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Editing - Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects - Mad Max: Fury Road

Documentary Short - Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

Live Action Short - Day One

Animated Short - World of Tomorrow

How'd I Do? 2016 Edition: Results of My Oscar Nomination Predictions

Ummmm. So I got 19 out of 20 acting nominees correct. But only 35/43 (81%) in the Big 8 categories, a slight improvement over last year. My overall is 77/106 or 73%, a minor improvement over last year.

Here's the breakdown.

Nominees marked with an asterisk are the ones I missed.

Best Picture 6/8

I predicted 9 nominees. There were actually 8. Normally I make a graduated list, indicating the 5 certain nominees and the each successive most likely. I forgot to do that this year, but if I'm honest

Spotlight

The Revenant

Brooklyn

The Martian
Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Big Short
*Room

predicted but not nominated: Inside Out; Carol

88th Academy Awards Nomination Predictions

These predictions get harder and harder to make not so much based on what I've seen of the movies, but more on how much I've read from other prognosticators. The last couple of months have left me bone-dry for reading material on the topic of awards season. I used to read a lot of the buzz, which provides a sense for what people in Hollywood are talking about. You see the ebbs and flows of popularity and the ways in which smaller films creep up from behind to overtake some studio film. I don't have a sense of any of that this year, so I'm winging it.

Of the roughly 13 films from which I believe the 5 - 10 Best Picture nominees will come, I have yet to see two of them.

I've got my eyes on about 25 films that are in the running for acting awards. I haven't seen 9 of them.

But here it goes anyway. My nominations for predictions to be announced tomorrow morning...

Best Picture

I'm going with a prediction of nine nominees this year.

Spotlight

The Revenant

Brooklyn

Inside Out

Carol

The Martian
Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Big Short

With outside chances for one of these to sneak in:

Room
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton

87th Academy Awards: Oscar Predictions

Here we go with my quick rundown of what I think will win tomorrow night. As usual, I expect to get all 24 categories correct.

Picture

A genuinely tough call this year. It's a tight race between Boyhood and Birdman, with American Sniper perhaps a not-too-distant third given its popular success. But really it will be one of the first two. I feel almost like it's a toss-up even as to whether they will split Director and Picture or sweep.

My final answer is...

Birdman. (I actually typed Boyhood first and changed my mind, that's how indecisive I am). Ultimately perhaps it comes down to the fact that Birdman is about a tortured actor who sees himself as a true artist looking for critical approval. And actors make up the largest contingent of the Academy.

How Did I Do (2015 Edition): Or My Results on the Oscar Nomination Predictions

One prediction I got right was that my predictions would not be very good. I don't have records going all the way back, but I'm pretty sure this is close to my worst prediction year. I got a perfect score for only one category - Original Screenplay - and missed on all five (!) in the Sound Mixing category. That's the first time I've ever gone 0/5 in any category. Pretty bad. Anyway, getting 4/5 in a major category is not really a significant accomplishment. Most of the time there's a pretty solid selection of four actors or actresses, four directors, four screenplays. It's the fifth spot that's the hardest to nail down.

In the top eight categories I went 34/43 for a 79%, a full ten percentage points below last year. I should give myself an extra point for correctly predicting there would be only eight Best Picture nominees.

Across all categories that I predicted (so excluding the three short film categories) I scored 72/106 for 68%. Ouch!

So here are the nominees and how I fared...Nominees marked with an asterisk were the ones I missed.

Picture 7/8

Pretty surprised that Whiplash made the cut and Foxcatcher didn't. I wasn't wild about either movie, but that Bennett Miller was nominated for Best Director is quite an accomplishment considering his film isn't even one of the best eight of the year.

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

*Whiplash

predicted but not nominated: Foxcatcher

87th Academy Awards Nomination Predictions

Let me just start by saying that I will not do better on my predictions than last year, when I scored my best prediction rate ever with close to 90% in the top eight categories and better than 75% across all categories.

One of the biggest factors affecting my abilities this year is that I still have a pretty long list of things to see. My predictions are based on a combination of seeing the films and evaluating them, thinking about Hollywood politics, thinking about what other people are likely to respond to emotionally, and also a kind of gut instinct which is really just about bringing the former factors together.

I don't think 2014 was a very good year for film. A lot of what is likely to get a nomination for Best Picture is pretty mediocre. And that follows on down the line through all the technical categories and a lot of acting performances that just failed to blow me away.

The major things still on my list to see are Into the Woods; Unbroken; American Sniper; Selma; The Hobbit; and A Most Violent Year in addition to a bunch of lesser films that could score technical nominations.

My prediction lists are all in order of likelihood. So in most categories, at least the first three spots are dead locks.

Best Picture

I'm calling only eight nominees this year. Since they went to a range of 5 - 10 nominees, there have always been nine nominees, but I just feel like 2014 was a bit weak.

Boyhood

Birdman

The Imitation Game

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Selma

6. Foxcatcher

7. The Theory of Everything

8. American Sniper

If there are more than eight:

9. Into the Woods

10. Whiplash

Final Oscar Predictions

This is coming through later than I'd wanted. We just moved into a new house and it's been a terribly busy two weeks. I've not had any time to write as I've spent nearly all my free time either moving boxes and furniture, organizing boxes and furniture, cleaning, and other little odds and ends.

It's late right now, and I really don't have time, but for the sake of just getting this out there, here are my predictions for Sunday night's Oscar ceremony:

Picture: 12 Years a Slave

I have little doubt about this one, although I don't think 12 Years a Slave will win many awards overall.

Director: Alfonso Cuaron

This is a no-brainer as far as I'm concerned.

Actress: Cate Blanchett

This is really tough because I think Amy Adams so richly deserves the award. She's had so many nominations in her very short movie career and she was just dazzling in American Hustle. But Cate Blanchett is a phenomenal actress, was incredible in Blue Jasmine, and while she has won an Oscar, it was not as lead actress.

Actor: Matthew McConaughey

No-brainer again.