Tuesday, January 13, 2015

87th Academy Awards Nomination Predictions

Let me just start by saying that I will not do better on my predictions than last year, when I scored my best prediction rate ever with close to 90% in the top eight categories and better than 75% across all categories.

One of the biggest factors affecting my abilities this year is that I still have a pretty long list of things to see. My predictions are based on a combination of seeing the films and evaluating them, thinking about Hollywood politics, thinking about what other people are likely to respond to emotionally, and also a kind of gut instinct which is really just about bringing the former factors together.

I don't think 2014 was a very good year for film. A lot of what is likely to get a nomination for Best Picture is pretty mediocre. And that follows on down the line through all the technical categories and a lot of acting performances that just failed to blow me away.

The major things still on my list to see are Into the Woods; Unbroken; American Sniper; Selma; The Hobbit; and A Most Violent Year in addition to a bunch of lesser films that could score technical nominations.

My prediction lists are all in order of likelihood. So in most categories, at least the first three spots are dead locks.

Best Picture
I'm calling only eight nominees this year. Since they went to a range of 5 - 10 nominees, there have always been nine nominees, but I just feel like 2014 was a bit weak.

Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
6. Foxcatcher
7. The Theory of Everything
8. American Sniper

If there are more than eight:
9. Into the Woods
10. Whiplash


Director
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu - Birdman
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game
Ava Duvernay - Selma
Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel

spoilers: James Marsh (The Theory of Everything); Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)

Actor
Michael Keaton - Birdman
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Ralph Fiennes - The Grand Budapest Hotel
David Oyelowo - Selma

spoilers: Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler); Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Actress
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Jennifer Aniston - Cake

spoilers: Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night); Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
  
Supporting Actor
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Edward Norton - Birdman
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice

spoilers: Robert Duvall (The Judge); Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Emma Stone - Birdman
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Rene Russo - Nightcrawler

spoilers: Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year); Naomi Watts (St. Vincent)

Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Foxcatcher

spoilersSelmaMr. TurnerA Most Violent Year

Adapted Screenplay
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Gone Girl
Wild
Whiplash

spoilers: Inherent Vice; American Sniper

Animated Feature
The Lego Movie
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Boxtrolls
Big Hero 6
Song of the Sea

spoilerThe Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Documentary Feature
Life Itself
CitizenFour
Finding Vivian Maier
The Case Against 8
The Overnighters

spoilerLast Days in Vietnam

Foreign Language Film
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Force Majeure (Sweden)
Tangerines (Estonia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)

spoilerWild Tales (Argentina)

Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
The Imitation Game
Maleficent

spoilers: Interstellar; The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Costume Design
Maleficent
Into the Woods
The Imitation Game
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner

spoilersThe Theory of EverythingSelma

Cinematography
Unbroken
Birdman
Interstellar
Nightcrawler
Mr. Turner

spoilers: Ida; Gone Girl; A Most Violent Year

Film Editing
Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Interstellar

spoilers: Gone Girl; The Grand Budapest Hotel

Original  Score
The Imitation Game - Alexandre Desplat
The Theory of Everything - Johann Johannsson
Interstellar - Hans Zimmer
Gone Girl - Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Unbroken - Alexandre Desplat

spoilersThe Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat); Big Eyes (Danny Elfman)

Original Song
"Glory" from Selma
"Everything Is Awesome" from The LEGO Movie
"Lost Stars" from Begin Again
"Mercy Is" from Noah
"Miracles" from Unbroken

Sound Mixing
Into the Woods
Fury
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Get on Up
Transformers: Age of Extinction

spoilers: Birdman; American Sniper

Sound Editing
Fury
Interstellar
American Sniper
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Whiplash

spoilers: Transformers: Age of Extinction; Unbroken; Godzilla

Makeup and Hairstyling
Guardians of the Galaxy
Foxcatcher
Maleficent

spoilers: The Amazing Spider Man 2; The Grand Budapest Hotel

Visual Effects
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

spoilers: Captain America: The Winter Soldier; Transformers: Age of Extinction

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