Many of these predictions are likely to remain the same on my final list a few days before the ceremony and some will change. Some have already changed, in fact, but these are what I picked on January 24.
Picture
La La Land - it's got momentum and a lot of love. It's a happy story, it's vibrant and exciting. It's the kind of thing people want to vote for. Plus it's about Hollywood, which Hollywood loves.
Director
Damien Chazelle - La La Land - this choice may change over the next three weeks, but don't count on it. A significant part of what makes this movie so wonderful is Chazelle's direction.
Actress
Isabelle Huppert - Elle - because of her Golden Globe win (a bit of a surprise, actually), this is my snapshot impression, although I may go with another choice in the end as momentum swings in a different direction.
Actor
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea - the smart money says he will win as he's won so many precursor awards, but this is shaping up to be unpredictable like the Best Actress category. Can't remember the last time there wasn't a foregone conclusion in at least one of the lead acting categories.
Supporting Actress
Viola Davis - Fences - unlikely to change
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight - unlikely to change
Original Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea - I could waver on this one, but probably not
Adapted Screenplay
Moonlight
Animated Feature
Moana - this could go another direction
Film Editing
La La Land
Production Design
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Cinematography
La La Land
Costume Design
La La Land
Original Score
La La Land
Original Song
"City of Stars" from La La Land
Makeup and Hairstyling
Suicide Squad
Sound Mixing
La La Land
Sound Editing
Hacksaw Ridge
Visual Effects
Doctor Strange
Foreign Language Film
The Salesman from Iran
Documentary Feature
13th
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