Thursday, January 14, 2016

How'd I Do? 2016 Edition: Results of My Oscar Nomination Predictions

Ummmm. So I got 19 out of 20 acting nominees correct. But only 35/43 (81%) in the Big 8 categories, a slight improvement over last year. My overall is 77/106 or 73%, a minor improvement over last year.

Here's the breakdown.

Nominees marked with an asterisk are the ones I missed.

Best Picture 6/8
I predicted 9 nominees. There were actually 8. Normally I make a graduated list, indicating the 5 certain nominees and the each successive most likely. I forgot to do that this year, but if I'm honest

Spotlight
The Revenant
Brooklyn
The Martian
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Big Short
*Room

predicted but not nominated: Inside Out; Carol


Director 3/5
There are four first-time nominees this year (well, George Miller has been nominated in other categories and even won for Animated Feature 2006). Iñárritu is the only prior nominee and he won last year, so I'd say it's likely we'll have a rookie winner.

Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - The Revenant
George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
*Adam McKay - The Big Short
*Lenny Abrahamson - Room

predicted but not nominated: Ridley Scott (The Martian); Todd Haynes (Carol)

Actor 5/5
Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl
Matt Damon - The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs

Actress 5/5
Cate Blanchett - Carol
Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
Brie Larson - Room
Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence - Joy

Supporting Actor 4/5
Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
Christian Bale - The Big Short
Tom Hardy - The Revenant
*Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight

predicted but not nominated: Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation

Supporting Actress 5/5
Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara - Carol
Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight

Original Screenplay 3/5
Spotlight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
*Ex Machina
*Straight Outta Compton

predicted but not nominated: Trainwreck; The Hateful Eight

Adapted Screenplay 4/5
Carol
Brooklyn
The Big Short
*The Martian
Room

predicted but not nominated: Steve Jobs

Animated Feature 4/5
Inside Out
Anomalisa
Shaun the Sheep
*Boy and the World
When Marnie Was There

predicted but not nominated: The Peanuts Movie

Foreign Language Film 4/5
Son of Saul - Hungary
Mustang - France
Embrace of the Serpent - Colombia
*A War - Denmark
Theeb - Jordan

 predicted but not nominated: Labyrinth of Lies - Germany

Documentary Feature 3/5
this is probably the first time I've seen three of the nominees before the nominations were announced.

*Cartel Land
*Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
Amy
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?

predicted but not nominated: Listen to Me Marlon; The Hunting Ground

Cinematography 4/5
The Revenant
The Hateful Eight
Carol
*Sicario
Mad Max: Fury Road

predicted but not nominated: Bridge of Spies

Film Editing 4/5
Mad Max: Fury Road
Spotlight
The Big Short
*Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant

predicted but not nominated: The Martian

Production Design 3/5
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
*The Martian
*The Revenant

predicted but not nominated: Cinderella; Carol

Costume Design 3/5
Cinderella
Carol
*The Danish Girl
*The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road

predicted but not nominated: Brooklyn; Bridge of Spies

Original Score 3/5
Carol
*Bridge of Spies
*Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Hateful Eight

predicted but not nominated: The Danish Girl; Spotlight

Original Song 3/5
"Simple Song #3" from Youth
*"Manta Ray" from Racing Extinction
*"Writing's on the Wall" from Spectre
"Til It Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground
"Earned It" from 50 Shades of Grey

predicted but not nominated: "See You Again" from Furious 7; "So Long" from Concussion

Visual Effects 3/5
*Ex Machina
*The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian

predicted but not nominated: Jurassic World; The Avengers - Age of Ultron

Makeup and Hairstyling 2/3
*The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

predicted but not nominated: Black Mass

Sound Mixing 4/5
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Mad Max: Fury Road
*Bridge of Spies
The Martian
The Revenant

predicted but not nominated: Spectre

Sound Editing 3/5
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
*The Revenant
*Sicario

predicted but not nominated: Jurassic World; The Hateful Eight

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