Thursday, January 14, 2016

88th Academy Awards Nomination Predictions

These predictions get harder and harder to make not so much based on what I've seen of the movies, but more on how much I've read from other prognosticators. The last couple of months have left me bone-dry for reading material on the topic of awards season. I used to read a lot of the buzz, which provides a sense for what people in Hollywood are talking about. You see the ebbs and flows of popularity and the ways in which smaller films creep up from behind to overtake some studio film. I don't have a sense of any of that this year, so I'm winging it.

Of the roughly 13 films from which I believe the 5 - 10 Best Picture nominees will come, I have yet to see two of them.

I've got my eyes on about 25 films that are in the running for acting awards. I haven't seen 9 of them.

But here it goes anyway. My nominations for predictions to be announced tomorrow morning...

Best Picture
I'm going with a prediction of nine nominees this year.

Spotlight
The Revenant
Brooklyn
Inside Out
Carol
The Martian
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Big Short

With outside chances for one of these to sneak in:

Room
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton


Director
Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - The Revenant
Ridley Scott - The Martian
George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
Todd Haynes - Carol

Actor
Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl
Matt Damon - The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs

Actress
Rooney Mara should be regarded as a lead in Carol, but sadly I think if she's nominated, it will be as supporting actress, which makes no sense. I think the old Dames Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith will sit this one out. But Charlotte Rampling will be there to fill the spot reserved for the classy old British actress.

Cate Blanchett - Carol
Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
Brie Larson - Room
Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence - Joy

Supporting Actor
tough decisions to be made here. Who gets dropped? Ruffalo? Hardy? Elba? Not sure, but I'm going to say The Revenant will get much love.

Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation
Christian Bale - The Big Short
Tom Hardy - The Revenant

Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara - Carol
Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight

Original Screenplay
The Hateful Eight
Spotlight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Trainwreck

Adapted Screenplay
Carol
Brooklyn
The Big Short
Room
Steve Jobs

Animated Feature
Inside Out
Anomalisa
Shaun the Sheep
The Peanuts
When Marnie Was There

Foreign Language Film
Son of Saul - Hungary
Mustang - France
Embrace of the Serpent - Colombia
Labyrinth of Lies - Germany
Theeb - Jordan

Documentary Feature
Listen to Me Marlon
Amy
The Look of Silence
The Hunting Ground
What Happened, Miss Simone?

Cinematography
The Revenant
The Hateful Eight
Carol
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road

Film Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
The Revenant

Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
Cinderella

Costume Design
Cinderella
Carol
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road

Original Score
Carol
The Danish Girl
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Hateful Eight
Spotlight

Original Song
"Simple Song #3" from Youth
"See You Again" from Furious 7
"Til It Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground
"Earned It" from 50 Shades of Grey
"So Long" from Concussion

Visual Effects
The Avengers - Age of Ultron
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Mad Max: Fury Road
Jurassic World
The Martian

Makeup and Hairstyling
Black Mass
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Sound Mixing
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Mad Max: Fury Road
Spectre
The Martian
The Revenant

Sound Editing
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Jurassic World
The Hateful Eight

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