Thursday, January 16, 2014

How Did I Do (2014 Edition)?: Or my results on Oscar nomination predictions

Here is a rundown of how I did on my predictions for the nominations for the 86th Academy Awards.

But first...

I thought 12 Years a Slave would have the big haul of nominations, but it's in third place with nine. American Hustle and Gravity came out on top with ten nominations each. Following behind we have Captain Phillips,  Dallas Buyers Club, and Nebraska each with six and then Her and The Wolf of Wall Street with five each.

There are seven first-time nominees in the four acting categories with all the women of the Best Actress category having been nominated before. Amy Adams is the only one who's never won an Oscar and I think this really could and should be her year.

You can click here to see my list of predictions.

In the top eight categories I scored 39/44 (88.6%). That's probably my best ever, or close to it.

Across all categories that I predicted my score was 82/107 (76.6%)

That's all definitely far better than last year.



Picture 8/9
No great shocks here. It's kind of impossible to have shocking inclusions or exclusions when there can be as many as ten nominees. I got eight out of nine correct. I went with Inside Llewyn Davis over Philomena. The Coen brothers movie also missed out on a screenplay nomination I thought it was likely to get. And I'm so happy that Saving Mr. Banks wasn't nominated.

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

predicted but not nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis

Director 4/5
David O. Russell - American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón - Gravity
Alexander Payne - Nebraska
Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street

predicted but not nominated: Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips

Actor 4/5
I think it is a big surprise that Tom Hanks was not nominated. I truly thought he was a dead lock. I would leave DiCaprio off this list in a heartbeat.

Christian Bale - American Hustle
Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club

predicted but not nominated: Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips

Actress 5/5
I'm glad I decided to leave Emma Thompson off the list. A lot of prognosticators were calling for her, but I just wasn't feeling it.

Amy Adams - American Hustle
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Judi Dench - Philomena
Meryl Streep - August: Osage County

Supporting Actor 4/5
Jonah Hill? Really? I mean, I knew it was a good possibility, but seriously?

Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club

predicted but not nominated: James Gandolfini - Enough Said

Supporting Actress 4/5
I really thought Oprah would get some Academy love. I also thought the same fifteen years ago for Beloved and was wrong then. I am pretty happy that Lee Daniels' The Butler failed to garner a single nomination.

Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
June Squibb - Nebraska

predicted but not nominated: Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler

Original Screenplay 4/5
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska

predicted but not nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis

Adapted Screenplay 5/5
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Animated Feature 4/5
Well no Pixar this year with Monster University left out. Now I have to watch Despicable Me 2? I never even saw the first one.

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

predicted but not nominated: Monsters University

Cinematography 4/5
The Grandmaster - Philippe Le Sourd
Gravity - Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis - Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska - Phedon Papamichael
Prisoners - Roger Deakins

predicted but not nominated: 12 Years a Slave - Sean Bobbitt

Costume Design 4/5
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave

predicted but not nominated: Oz: the Great and Powerful

Documentary Feature 4/5
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom

predicted but not nominated: Stories We Tell

Documentary Short
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Film Editing 4/5
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave

predicted but not nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis

Foreign Language Film 3/5
The Broken Circle Breakdown - Belgium
The Great Beauty - Italy
The Hunt - Denmark
The Missing Picture - Cambodia
Omar - Palestine

Makeup and Hairstyling 2/3
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

predicted but not nominated: American Hustle

Original Score 3/5
No Hans Zimmer for 12 Years a Slave is a bit of a surprise.

John Williams - The Book Thief
Steven Price - Gravity
William Butler and Owen Pallett - Her
Alexandre Desplat - Philomena
Thomas Newman - Saving Mr. Banks

predicted but not nominated: Hans Zimmer - 12 Years a Slave; Alex Ebert - All Is Lost

Original Song 2/5
I always score very badly in this category. I've not even heard of Alone Yet Not Alone. Also, I saw Her the night after I made my predictions. I really would have included that had I seen it first.
"Alone Yet Not Alone" from Alone Yet Not Alone
"Happy" from Despicable Me 2
"Let It Go" from Frozen
"The Moon Song" from Her
"Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

predicted but not nominated: "Young and Beautiful" from The Great Gatsby; "Amen" from All Is Lost; "Atlast" from The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Production Design 2/5
My worst category. Wow! Her is a big surprise inclusion here. Not unworthy, by any means, but that kind of subtle work is seldom recognized.

American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave

predicted but not nominated: Inside Llewyn Davis; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Saving Mr. Banks

Animated Short
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom

Live Action Short
Aquel No Era Yo
Avant Que De Tout Perdre
Helium
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa?
The Voorman Problem

Sound Editing 4/5
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

predicted but not nominated: Pacific Rim

Sound Mixing 4/5
Scoring eight out of ten in the two sound categories is just unheard of.

Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor

predicted but not nominated: 12 Years a Slave

Visual Effects 3/5
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

predicted but not nominated: Pacifici Rim; Oblivion

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