Sunday, February 12, 2012

84th Academy Awards Predictions

I'm making these predictions still with two weeks to go before the ceremony. There remain several films I haven't managed to see yet, mostly in the technical and short film categories. My goal is to have seen everything except 1 of the documentary short films, and probably two of the foreign language films. It will require great focus and a lot of time, but I'm aiming high. With that in mind, I might revise my final predictions before the 26th, but this is how I'm calling it at the moment. Any updates will be noted as such.

You can find the full list of nominees with links to any reviews I've written here.

Picture - The Artist
Director - Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Actress - Viola Davis for The Help
Sorry Meryl, you won't be winning again.
Supporting Actress - Octavia Spencer for The Help
Actor - Jean Dujardin for The Artist
Supporting Actor - Christopher Plummer for Beginners
Adapted Screenplay - The Descendants
Original Screenplay - Midnight in Paris
I'm not really sure any of the other nominees will really connect with Academy voters. Woody is a sentimental favorite who hasn't won an Oscar in more than 20 years.
Film Editing - Hugo
Cinematography - The Tree of Life
Art Direction/Set Decoration - Hugo
Costume Design - Hugo
Musical Score - The Artist
Without the musical score, this movie is almost nothing.
Original Song - "Real in Rio" from Rio
Makeup - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
Sound Mixing - Hugo
Sound Editing - Hugo
Most voters don't know the difference between these two categories and tend to vote for the same film, especially one that is likely as popular with the Academy as this one is.
Visual Effects - Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Animated Feature - Rango
Still with two films to see in this category I feel confident in this prediction.
Documentary Feature - original prediction: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory current prediction: Pina
I've only seen two so far, but this is my prediction.
Updated 23 February: I've now seen all the nominees and considering that only those Academy members who have seen all the nominated films can vote in this category I have to think they're going to vote with the film that moved them most. For me, Pina, was the most astounding of the five, so I'm changing my prediction.
Foreign Language Film - A Separation
Animated Short - The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
I haven't seen any of the films. The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore is on YouTube, but I'm waiting to see the full program next week. La Luna is Pixar's (nearly) annual entry in this category, so even though Cars 2 didn't make the cut for feature animation, at least they got on the board in this category.
Update 16 February: I've seen all the nominees and my choice is the strongest of the five nominees. La Luna is about as excellent, but I'm sticking with my original pick.
Live Action Short - Time Freak
Again, I haven't seen any of the films in this category, but based on what I've read...
Update 16 February: I've seen all the nominees now and I think Time Freak really is the strongest of the three nominees, so I'm sticking with it as my prediction. But voters may go sentimental and do-gooder and vote for the lost child weepie Raju.
Documentary Short - Saving Face
I haven't seen any of these films.
Update 16 February: I've now seen four of the nominees and have changed my prediction from  Incident in New Baghdad. Voters may choose that doc about a day of bloodshed in the Iraq war. It plays to the stereotypical liberal Hollywood mindset by featuring an ex-soldier speaking out against the war. But I think voters will go with the doc that moves them most and I was most moved by Saving Face, so I've changed my prediction to that.

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