Tuesday, January 24, 2012

How Did I Do (2012 Edition)

So let's take a look at my predictions against the actual nominees and round up my score and make some comments along the way.

In the top 8 categories my score is 34/44 (77%) compared to last year's 39/45 (87%).
If I include Animated Feature (which I did last year) in top categories then I drop to 36/49 (73%).

Total score: 63/94 (67%) possibly my worst ever. A big letdown after my possibly best ever last year.

Picture
There was little chance I was going to equal my 10/10 from last year's predictions, but I'm pretty satisfied with my result. I said there would be 8 nominees and there were 9, but I'm not holding that against myself. Here's the list:

The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (not predicted)
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
predicted but not nominated: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
score: 8/9

Director
I'm not extraordinarily surprised by this result. Malick's nomination was a spoiler on my list

Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life (not predicted)

predicted but not nominated: David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
score: 4/5

Actor
I think the inclusion of both Demián Bichir AND Gary Oldman is simply phenomenal. Academy voters collectively did the right thing here even if it means Michael Fassbender (I haven't yet seen Shame) was left off.

Demián Bichir - A Better Life (not predicted)
George Clooney - The Descendants
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

predicted but not nominated: Michael Fassbender - Shame
score: 4/5

Actress
I haven't seen the movie, but the exclusion of Tilda Swinton is somewhat surprising. Still, I can't say I'm disappointed in this list.

Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn
Viola Davis - The Help
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs (not predicted)
Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

predicted but not nominated: Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin
score: 4/5

Supporting Actor
Jonah Hill? Really? Really? I didn't want to believe the buzz and prognosticators. He's nominated simply by riding the wave of tremendous good will (a bit oversold) toward Moneyball. He was included at the expense of Albert Brooks. Incredible.

Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Jonah Hill - Moneyball (not predicted)
Max von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (not predicted)
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn

predicted but not nominated:
Albert Brooks - Drive
Patton Oswalt - Young Adult
score: a pitiful 3/5

Supporting Actress
We've been here before - the first three are locks. Although I'd prefer Chastain for either The Tree of Life or Take Shelter, but she'll get it for the less film. I'm leaving off Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids.

Jessica Chastain - The Help
Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids (not predicted)
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs

predicted but not nominated: Shailene Woodley - The Descendants
score: 4/5

Adapted Screenplay
I called the spoiler of Tinker Tailor but certainly didn't count on the inclusion of The Ides of March.

The Descendants
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (not predicted)
Moneyball
The Ides of March (not predicted)

predicted but not nominated: The Help and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
score: 3/5 - awful

Original Screenplay
Bridesmaids
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Margin Call (not predicted)

predicted but not nominated: 50/50
score: 4/5

Animated Feature
I totally tanked it on this one. And after 4 wins in a row in this category, Pixar tanked it with Cars 2 which fails to get a nomination. The last time Pixar didn't win this category was when Cars lost to Happy Feet, whose sequel Happy Feet 2 also failed to be nominated.

Rango
Chico & Rita (not predicted)
A Cat in Paris (not predicted)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (not predicted)
Puss in Boots

predicted but not nominated: Cars 2The Adventures of TintinArthur Christmas
score: 2/5 - Ugh!

Cinematography
The Tree of Life
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse (not predicted)

predicted but not nominated: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
score: 4/5

Art Direction
War Horse
Hugo
The Artist
Midnight in Paris (not predicted)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II

predicted but not nominated: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
score: 4/5

Costume Design
Jane Eyre
Hugo
Anonymous (not predicted)
W.E. (not predicted)
The Artist

predicted but not nominated: War HorseMy Week With Marilyn
score: 3/5

Film Editing
The Descendants
Hugo
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball (not predicted)

predicted but not nominated: Contagion
score: 4/5

Makeup
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Albert Nobbs (not predicted)
The Iron Lady

predicted but not nominated: Hugo
score: 2/3

Original Score
John Williams picks up 2 nominations after his longest career Oscar dry spell since his first nomination in 1967. His last time on this list was a double nomination for 2005's Munich and Memoirs of a Geisha. Since then his only film score was Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. This brings his total to 47 nominations. He's unlikely to ever best the all-time leading Oscar nominee which is Walt Disney whose career nominations total (not counting special awards) 59. Can Williams collect a 6th career statue next month? Or will his two nominations split the vote allowing one of the other three to sneak through?
John Williams - War Horse
Albert Iglesias - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Howard Shore - Hugo
Ludovic Bource - The Artist
John Williams - The Adventures of Tintin

predicted but not nominated: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
score: 3/5

Original Song
Only two nominees this year. The songs must have sucked. I've been saying for years that this category should be eliminated or seriously re-tooled.

"Man or Muppet" from The Muppets (not predicted)
"Real in Rio" from Rio (not predicted)

predicted but not nominated: "Lay Your Head Down" from Albert Nobbs and "Hello Hello" from Gnomeo & Juliet
score: 0/2

Sound Mixing
War Horse
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (not predicted)
Hugo
Moneyball (not predicted)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

predicted but not nominated: Super 8 and Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
score: 3/5

Sound Editing
Drive (not predicted)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (not predicted)
War Horse (not predicted)
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Hugo

predicted but not nominated: The Adventures of Tintin, Cars 2, Super 8
score: 2/5

Visual Effects
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II (not predicted)
Hugo (not predicted)
Real Steel (not predicted)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes

predicted but not nominated: X-Men: First Class, Super 8, The Tree of Life
score: 2/5

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