Oscar Nomination Predictions

Just my predictions for the nominations which will be announced tomorrow morning. After the announcement I'll be back with commentary.

Picture

A difficult category to accurately predict given the fluidity in the number of nominees (there can be as few as 5 and as many as 10). I've listed my predictions in my personal order of likelihood. So the first five I would consider locks. I'm going with a field of 8 nominees, but putting money on a possible 9th and 10th spot as well.

5 for sure...
The Artist

The Descendants

Hugo

The Help

Midnight in Paris
the 6th, 7th and 8th...
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
War Horse
if there's 9...

The Tree of Life
if there's 10...

Bridesmaids

Director

I'm predicting a clean alignment with the Director's Guild nominees.

Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist

Martin Scorsese - Hugo

Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Actor

The first three listed are the sure things. My three personal favorites are Michael Shannon, Michael Fassbender and Demian Bichir, but did enough Academy members see their movies? My fear is that DiCaprio gets a totally undeserved nomination this year. I think he's a phenomenal actor, but I really didn't like him in J. Edgar. Gary Oldman was really fantastic, but I'm not sure there's enough support for the movie. As always, so many deserving men in this category and not enough space for all of them.

George Clooney - The Descendants

Brad Pitt - Moneyball

Jean Dujardin - The Artist

Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Michael Fassbender - Shame

Actress

Remember when Kirsten Dunst won this award at last year's Cannes Film Festival? Neither does anyone else and she's not going to make it on the Academy ballot. Like the Best Actor race, the first three are locks. As deep as my admiration was for Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene she's not getting nominated. So really there are 6 women vying for 5 slots. Tilda Swinton is probably pretty close to a sure thing. So who will take that fifth spot? Rooney Mara or Glenn Close?

Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn

Viola Davis - The Help
Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin

Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Supporting Actor
SAG loved J. Edgar but I just thought Armie Hammer was dreadful. I can't include him. There's a lot of buzz about Jonah Hill in Moneyball and Patton Oswalt in Young Adult. I don't see it happening for either one of them. Branagh, though undeserving, will probably get it. Again, I'd call the first three on this list sure things. I'd love to see a real surprise like Benedict Cumberbatch for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy or John C. Reilly for Carnage. On second thought, maybe Oswalt sneaks in for that fifth spot.

Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Albert Brooks - Drive
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Patton Oswalt - Young Adult

Supporting Actress
We've been here before - the first three are locks. Although I'd prefer Chastain for either The Tree of Life or Take Shelter, but she'll get it for the less film. I'm leaving off Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids.

Jessica Chastain - The Help
Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Shailene Woodley - The Descendants
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs

Adapted Screenplay
The first four are pretty much certain.  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is a major spoiler possibility for the last spot.

The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Moneyball
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Original Screenplay
Bridesmaids
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
50/50

Animated Feature
Again, tricky here because up to a maximum of 5 films may be nominated given the 18 animated features released last year.

Rango
Cars 2
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Puss in Boots

Cinematography
The Tree of Life
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Art Direction
War Horse
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II

Costume Design
Jane Eyre
Hugo
War Horse
The Artist
My Week With Marilyn

Film Editing
The Descendants
Hugo
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Contagion

Makeup
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Hugo
The Iron Lady

Original Score
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
War Horse
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Artist

Original Song
I'm predicting only four nominees this year. But there can be as few as two.

with only 2 nominees...
"Lay Your Head Down" from Albert Nobbs
"Hello Hello" from Gnomeo & Juliet
3 nominees...
"Life's a Happy Song" from The Muppets
4 nominees...
"Coeur Volant" from Hugo
in the event of 5 nominees...
"The Living Proof" from The Help

Sound Mixing
War Horse
Super 8
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Sound Editing
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Cars 2
Hugo
The Adventures of Tintin

Visual Effects
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Super 8
The Tree of Life
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
X-Men: First Class