Early Oscar Predictions

I will make my official and final predictions quite close to the ceremony, but here I'll list out my instincts at the moment. Later I will take time to reflect, read what other prognosticators have to say, see how the campaigning plays out, etc.

Picture: Before the nominations I would have said The Social Network. Now it's a tough call as The King's Speech led the way with 12 nods. True Grit is in second with 10 which also makes it a contender, but it's almost unheard of for a film to win Best Picture without a Film Editing nomination. It hasn't happened since Ordinary People 30 years ago. Also a Coen brothers film won only 3 years ago. The King's Speech surprised with the PGA win, so I'm going with that one. Especially since the Academy traditionally goes for the costume dramas.

Oscar Trivia

There is not a single black person nominated in the acting categories this year. It's been ten years since that happened. Is this a sign that decent roles for black actors dropped off recently? Probably not. It's more likely one more in a series of signs that it's always been a struggle for black actors to get decent roles. Or I should say, for decent black characters to be written into Hollywood screenplays.

I wondered after this year's nominations were announced and I saw that the Coen brothers were triple nominated for their work on True Grit, if any other individual had ever been nominated for 3 Oscars in a single year 3 times (as Joel Coen has now done, including his editing nomination for Fargo under the name Roderick Jaynes).

Blue Valentine Movie Review: Scenes from a Marriage

Derek Cianfrance’s indie film Blue Valentine is a portrait of a disintegrating relationship. It has scenes of great emotional devastation anchored by two outstanding performances by Michelle Williams (recently Oscar nominated for her role) and Ryan Gosling as Cindy and Dean, a young married couple who have lost a bit of passion, to put it mildly.

The film alternates between two time periods. There is the present day period in which Cindy and Dean have a 5-year-old daughter, Frankie, and Cindy seems to barely tolerate Dean, who appears to be walking a very thin line between antagonizing his wife and simply trying to figure out how to live with a crumbling marriage. The other period is the beginning of their relationship, from their meeting to their wedding (which is hastily arranged and takes place within weeks of their meeting).

Hereafter Movie Review: Eastwood the Director Plods Through the Afterlife

Matt Damon and Bryce Dallas Howard have a touching moment.

I think maybe I’m growing weary of Clint Eastwood the director. Critics, like me, have been singing his praises since Mystic River and Million Dollar Baby, but his recent output may cause me to reevaluate what I once thought were excellent movies (Unforgiven and A Perfect World remain untouchable, however). Like Woody Allen, he churns out movie after movie each year (sometimes two!) with gradually diminishing returns. Sure, there may be the occasional spark of something genuine or original, but mostly it feels like he’s on autopilot. His films are more often than not dripping with forced sentimentality, supported by musical scores (composed by Eastwood) that have become repetitive and seldom have any forward motion.

All of these criticisms are true of his latest film, Hereafter, which stars Matt Damon as George Lonegan, a psychic reader with the honest ability to make connections with the dead. He has given up his lucrative business in favor of a simpler life as a factory worker.

Love and Other Drugs Movie Review

Edward Zwick, who has specialized in Hollywood action movies with a message (The Siege, Glory, Blood Diamond) has returned to the genre that got him started in feature films – the romantic comedy. It’s been 24 years since About Last Night… starring Rob Lowe and Demi Moore, both young and sexy, and depicted in the flesh in several perfectly lit scenes. But Zwick has not lost his touch for the ups and downs (including those in the bed) of a relationship. The actors have been updated to two sexy stars of the moment – Jake Gyllenhaal and Anne Hathaway. The movie is Love and Other Drugs, adapted from Jamie Reidy’s book Hard Sell: The Evolution of a Viagra Salesman by Zwick, Charles Randolph and Marshall Herskovitz.

How Did I Do?

Full list of nominees is available in many places, including the Official Oscar website and the Internet Movie Database.

So this is how I fared on my Oscar nomination predictions:

Picture 10/10

How do you like that? Okay, there were really only two spots up for grabs. Well, one to be honest. But still, when there were only five nominees in this category I usually only got 4/5.

Director 4/5

I missed the Coen brothers in favor of Christopher Nolan (snubbed yet again for this award). The Coens, however, can hardly be denied status as legendary film makers at this point. Joel Coen has now been triple nominated 3 times (counting his pseudonymous Film Editing nomination for Fargo). Technically speaking Ethan can't be counted as a triple triple nominee because he was not a credited director on Fargo, although it's widely recognized and accepted that they shared equal responsibility from their first film.

Anyway, I'm not sure if anyone else has ever been thrice nominated three separate years. When I have more time I'll look into it because I'm a fan of all things Oscar statistic-related.

Oscar Nominations Immediate Reactions

No really big surprises in the top categories announced on television. I still haven't seen the full list and don't really have time as I have to prepare for my classes in the next 90 minutes.

Joel and Ethan Coen nominated as Best Director is a slight surprise.

Not at all disappointed that The Town was not annointed with either Best Picture or Best Screenplay nominations because it was a better than average crime film, nothing more. People seem to have lowered their standards for Ben Affleck because he's such a subpar actor that if he can write and direct a pretty good movie it must be great.

No love at all for Blue Valentine. No Ryan Gosling and no Michelle Williams. Oh well.
Right, so this post was written so immediately and without thinking that I didn't even realize Michelle Williams was nominated.

Glad to see Jacki Weaver get a nomination and glad Andrew Garfield did not get a supporting actor nod for The Social Network.

However, Jesse Eisenberg did make the cut which is a slight sham. No Robert Duvall is unfortunate.

The Spanish film También la lluvia did not get a nomination thankfully. Although I would have preferred it over the dreadfully pretentious bullshit of Dogtooth.