90th Academy Awards - final predictions (all 24 categories)

Alongside my final predictions for tomorrow night's winners of the 90th Academy Awards, I'm including my initial predictions I made on the day of the nominations announcement, just to compare side-by-side how my thinking has changed (if at all) over the last six weeks.

Best Picture

The Shape of Water

I've waffled a little bit on this one, but ultimately I'm sticking to my guns. Three Billboards could upset, and there's a strong contingent predicting a win for Get Out. And Dunkirk has its supporters. But in the end, I think the fairy tale love story with the most nominations will win.

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water

He's won every major award. Christopher Nolan could be a dark horse to upset if Best Picture and Best Director split the awards, but I'm going with my original instinct here.

Best Actress

Nomination day prediction: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water

Today: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My original thinking was that McDormand is a past winner and there's so much love (13 nominations!) for The Shape of Water so Hawkins would win. But I've swung back to predicting a second Oscar for McDormand. The performance is dynamite and it's gotten a lot of attention.

Best Actor

Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

He's won every major award leading up to this weekend. Timothee Chalamet could upset, but that's not a safe bet. I'm going safe.

Best Supporting Actress

Nomination day prediction: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

Today: Allison Janney - I, Tonya

Six weeks ago I just thought the wind was blowing another way, but Janney should take this award.

Best Supporting Actor

Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I have never wavered from this prediction.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me by Your Name

I have never doubted this prediction.

Best Original Screenplay

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I have a gut feeling that Get Out has a better than fair chance to upset here. Hell! Maybe even Lady Bird. This could be one of those categories where I'm kicking myself for not going with my gut.

Best Animated Feature

Coco

End of story.

Best Documentary Feature

Nomination day prediction: Last Men in Aleppo

Today: Faces Places

Nothing is really an obvious standout. I initially went with Last Men in Aleppo for its subject matter and that it's kind of a sequel to last year's Documentary Short winner, The White Helmets, but I actually don't think it stands up to the other nominees quality-wise.

Best Foreign Language Film

Nomination day prediction: The Insult

Today: A Fantastic Woman

I think with the #MeToo movement and transgender issues being so prominent, A Fantastic Woman from Chile is going to seize the moment.

Best Film Editing

Dunkirk

I haven't veered from this choice very much.

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins - Blade Runner 2049

I've been here before, predicting Deakins to finally win this award and, after thirteen nominations, he has continually failed to reach the podium. I think this is his year. However, look for The Shape of Water to upset.

Best Costume Design

Nomination day prediction: Beauty and the Beast

Today: Phantom Thread

Very briefly did I think something other than Phantom Thread would win this award.

Best Production Design

Blade Runner 2049

Again, I think The Shape of Water has a strong chance to upset my prediction.

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat - The Shape of Water

This seems like a shoo-in.

Best Original Song

"Remember Me" from Coco

There are a lot of people calling this for "This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman, but rarely does a Best Song nominee so clearly elucidate the theme of the movie as well as "Remember Me."

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Darkest Hour

Yes, the heavy prosthetics will take the award.

Best Sound Mixing

Dunkirk

But look to Baby Driver for the upset.

Best Sound Editing

Dunkirk

Best Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049

There is a strong possibility that War for the Planet of the Apes will win this award as a kind of culmination of the trilogy award, the first two installments having lost.

Best Live Action Short

The Silent Child

A tough call. My Nephew Emmett is a very strong contender, but I keep thinking of the win last year for Sing and the Academy's penchant for choosing safer, more emotionally comforting material.

Best Animated Short

Dear Basketball

I've gone back and forth on this. Garden Party is the most stunning work, but doesn't really have a story to back up the incredible animation. Negative Space is a strong contender, but Kobe Bryant is the nominee for Dear Basketball. How many Academy voters live in L.A. and support the Lakers?

Best Documentary Short

Heroin(e)

After seeing all five nominees and contemplating a little, I think this is the strongest pick. It's a topical issue that affects all of the United States, but focuses its energy in one small town in West Virginia that is disproportionately affected by the ongoing opioid crisis.