So real quick and only a few hours before the ceremony begins, here are my final predictions. Every year I think tell myself I'm going to get this done weeks ahead of time and every year it ends up posted last minute. Oh well. Maybe next year.
So the broad stroke: Mad Max: Fury Road will not win Best Picture, but it will win the most awards, picking up almost a sweep of all its technical award nominations.
Picture - a month ago I had Spotlight as a lock on this and I think it's the best movie, but The Revenant has picked up a lot of steam and will take the top prize.
Director - the same is true for Iñárritu, who will repeat as best director, the first time in more than 60 years that it has happened. I went back and forth between him and George Miller as the veteran favorite who directed a stunning action film with lots of practical effects, but ultimately I think this is going to Alejandro.
Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio without doubt.
Actress - Brie Larson. I've known this for some time and I don't expect any surprises here.
Supporting Actor - Ugh, this is a tough one. I don't really think Christian Bale will win a second Oscar for this. Mark Ruffalo is bottom of the list. But The Revenant is hugely popular and Tom Hardy, an incredible actor who had an incredible year, could ride that wave. Sylvester Stallone could be the sentimental favorite here, repeating an iconic character of film history. But Stallone's career of giving terrible performances in terrible movies doesn't give him a lot of cachet. So I'm giving this to Mark Rylance by a nose.
Supporting Actress - Another tough acting category, but I think Alicia Vikander is a strong lock to win.
Original Screenplay - Spotlight will win the "consolation" prize.
Adapted Screenplay - The Big Short seems the most likely winner in this category. Spielberg movies don't often win screenplay awards, although Bridge of Spies was written by the Coen brothers.
Animated Feature - My choice would be for Anomalisa, but we're talking predictions here so Inside Out will take the crown back for Pixar.
Foreign Language Film - Son of Saul. No real competition here.
Documentary Feature - In recent years, this award has gone to the populist choice and this year that movie is the Amy Winehouse documentary Amy.
Film Editing - Mad Max: Fury Road
Production Design - Mad Max: Fury Road
Cinematography - Emmanuel Lubezki will win this award an unprecedented third time in a row for The Revenant and Roger Deakins will go home empty-handed, still having never won an Oscar after 13 nominations for stunning work.
Costume Design - I think this is a tough call and I think it's sort of going out on a limb to say Sandy Powell will win for Cinderella even it's the kind of work that traditionally wins this award. But I won't be surprised if either Mad Max or The Revenant wins.
Makeup and Hairstyling - Mad Max: Fury Road
Original Score - Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight
Original Song - This is pretty difficult to predict, but Lady Gaga is nominated so I'm going with her song co-written with perennial nominee (and never a winner) Diane Warren for "Til It Happens to You" from the documentary The Hunting Ground.
Sound - Mad Max: Fury Road
Sound Editing - Mad Max: Fury Road
Visual Effects - Mad Max: Fury Road
Documentary Short - Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
Live Action Short - Day One
Animated Short - World of Tomorrow
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