Tuesday, February 22, 2011

2011 Academy Awards Predictions

Here are my final (probably) predictions for the Academy Awards happening next Sunday night. I say probably because I may make a last minute change down to the wire, which I will denote with an asterisk.

I stand to win as much as $100,000 if I get all 24 correct.

If I can manage to maintain a live stream feed of the show like I did last, I will be live-blogging the ceremony, like I did last year.

As I'm calling it I've got The King's Speech coming out with 5 awards, Inception and The Social Network with 3 each, True Grit with 2, and 1 each for Black Swan, Alice in Wonderland, The Fighter, Toy Story 3, The Wolfman, and Country Strong.

For my early predictions I picked The King's Speech and that still seems like the safe bet. The Social Network seems to have peaked too early. Royal British drama will win out in the end.

David Fincher for The Social Network. Same as my early prediction. I'm uneasy about this one as splitting Director and Picture is risky. Tom Hooper could win this.

Colin Firth for The King's Speech - I've never doubted it.

This is Natalie Portman's year.

Supporting Actor
Still a tough call, but I'm going to stick with my guns on Christian Bale over Geoffrey Rush.

Supporting Actress
Hailee Steinfeld was just too good in True Grit to be passed over, and it's really a leading role. Also Melissa Leo, my early prediction, has stirred up some trouble by buying her own promotional ads - a move normally undertaken by the studio.

Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network. I've never wavered on this one.

Original Screenplay
The King's Speech.

Animated Feature
Do you even have to ask? Toy Story 3 is a no-brainer.

Film Editing
Another tough decision, but I'm still on board with The Social Network.

Art Direction
Recently I've been weighing the possibility of an Alice in Wonderland win, but I'm sticking with The King's Speech in the end.

I'm changing from my early prediction of The Social Network to Roger Deakins' finally receiving his due for True Grit.

Costume Design
Going with my original prediction of Alice in Wonderland.

Original Score
Alexandre Desplat for The King's Speech. Sorry Hans Zimmer, you'll have to try again.

Original Song
I'm staying with Country Strong simply based on what I've read.

It seems The Wolfman had the most makeup while Barney's Version had the best and most subtle makeup. More usually wins in this category. I'll stick with The Wolfman.

Visual Effects
Inception with very little doubt.

Inception still.

Sound Editing

Foreign Language Film
Voters have to have seen all five nominated films to vote which means that the best known doesn't necessarily win. This bodes poorly for Biutiful. I've seen half of that movie and all of Dogtooth, but none of the other three. So I'm going with Biutiful for lack of knowledge.

UPDATE: Only minutes before the show and I'm changing my mind on this one. I'm going with In a Better World. Of course if I'm right here that means I won't win $100,000.

Documentary Feature
I'm changing my mind on this after seeing Restrepo. Although I've only seen Exit Through the Gift Shop of the other four nominees, I'm going with Inside Job.

UPDATE: Now that I've seen Inside Job, I feel more confident in that pick.

Documentary Short
Strangers No More

Live Action Short
Na Wewe

Animated Short
The Gruffalo

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