This is one of the toughest groups to predict. No host nation has ever failed to advance out of the group stage. In 1994 it was widely assumed that the USA would be the first and we confounded the prognosticators with a win, a draw and a loss, finishing third in the group, but as one of the 4 best 3rd place finishers we went through. In 2002 again it was widely assumed that either South Korea or Japan would fail to advance and both went through. South Korea reached the semi-final by holding Spain to a 0-0 draw and then winning in penalty kicks after extra time. So although South Africa is one of the lowest ranked teams in the tournament, precedent would suggest they have a fair chance of going through.
France is a powerful side, having won the World Cup in 1998 and the Euro in 2000. They also made it to the final of the WC four years ago, losing to Italy on penalty kicks. Thierry Henry is a major threat (174 goals in 254 appearances with Arsenal in the Premier League; 35 goals in 80 appearances with Barcelona in the Spanish Liga; and 51 goals in 119 caps with the national team). He can even score with his hands - the way he knocked Ireland out of the qualifying playoff. Okay, Henry didn't score that goal, but he handled the ball with his forearm and hand before passing it across the goal to be knocked in by another player.
Uruguay finished in 5th place in South American qualifying (probably the most competitive qualifying bracket in the world). They aren't as strong a side as Brazil, Argentina or even Chile this year, but you can't really count out any South American side from going through.
Mexico picks up some advantage by playing all of their first round matches at altitude. They are accustomed to playing in Mexico City, also at high altitude and loaded with pollution. They open World Cup play against the host country who should also be acclimatized to the thin air in Johannesburg.
The thing is, if you're going to call it for South Africa to advance, then which of the other three will fail? No one wants to say France will bow out early like they did in 2002. But Mexico is a good team which has a distinct elevation advantage. I'm going to say Mexico is advancing in first place. They play France and Uruguay at 1230 meters and 1500 meters, respectively. I'm giving them 7 points from the 3 matches.
France goes through with either 7 points after defeating South Africa in the final group match or 5 points after a draw with South Africa. That match will also be played at elevation giving the edge to the hosts. If France and Mexico both finish with 7 points then first place will be determined by goal differential in which case France may have the edge.
South Africa bows out with either 2 points or 4 if they can defeat Uruguay at the 1200 meters of Pretoria.
Uruguay rather unfortunately finishes last in the group with a point if they're lucky.
Prediction:
Mexico 7
France 5
South Africa 4
Urugay 0
que dificil este grupo no?(para hacer predicciones claro) La verdad que yo no veo a Uruguay con 0 puntos, pero con Francia que no esta en su mejor momento y el anfitrion del mundial aqui la verdad es que puede pasar cualquier cosa. Pero yo coicido en que Mexico va a ser el lider de este grupo, tienen mas calidad de lo que la gente piensa.
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