Both teams in this afternoon's match looked like not much of a threat at all. However, I have to say Algeria looked more threatening than I was expecting and they won't be quite the walkover I was hoping for. I still don't think Slovenia will be easy for us. Although I can imagine them turning their game around from today's performance and coming out strong against us. A draw was looking quite likely for a while, which would have been a good result for us. Because Slovenia got the 3 points, we really have to get the win. England may be lacking in some confidence this week after some poor decision-making by Capello (starting Green in goal instead of James?) and that could hurt them going into the next match. If they were facing Slovenia I'd say they'd have more to fear. But my guess is they'll pull off a convincing win against Algeria, rebuild confidence and then defeat Slovenia for a total of 7 points. That means if we lose to Slovenia we're finished. A draw could be good enough in the end, but we'd prefer the win.
Another reason the US has to look for 7 points in the group is Germany's game against Australia tonight. Second place in our group will face first place in Germany's group. I had a suspicion before the tournament that Germany could slip into second. After thoroughly crushing Australia 4-0 and holding them to a mere 2 shots on goal all night (it didn't help the Aussies that Tim Cahill was sent off early in the second half, when they were already down 2-0 and likely to lose anyway). Germany looked vicious. They are the best looking team so far at this tournament (granted, only half the teams have played). Their passing was impeccable, they could set up shots, get their shots on target and Australia could barely break through their midfield enough to even test the defense or their keeper. I do not want the USA to face Germany in the Round of 16. That means we have to beat Slovenia and Algeria with lots of goals. It's not looking good - the US has never scored more than 2 goals in a World Cup match (one of the goals against Portugal in 2002 was an own goal).
The other two teams in Group D - Serbia and Ghana - both looked strong. Ghana probably had the better attack and outplayed Serbia through most of the match, but it was pretty close. The difference in the end was Serbia having a man sent off and then a stupid stupid stupid handball in the box to set up a penalty for Ghana's winning goal. I called it for Serbia to come out in second in this group. The loss to Ghana puts them in a bad position for that. They'll have to come up with a result against Germany to have a chance at it. I say Ghana is coming out of this group now.
I'm going to miss both Group E matches tomorrow, but I'll be home from work in time to catch Italy-Paraguay.
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