Argentina would face France, Portugal would be up against their Iberian neighbors and Italy would square off against the Dutch.
England will avoid a top flight team until the semifinal where they're likely to meet Brazil. That is assuming Germany wins their group, which is hardly a lock given the unpredictability in Group D.
Spain is my pick to win the tournament. However, it looks like they're going to have a very tough road just to get to the final. If things go as I've laid out, they'll face Italy in the quarterfinal (after a not very easy match against Portugal) and then either Germany or Argentina in the semis only to meet Brazil (or England) in the final. Now, two years ago Spain defeated both Italy and Germany to win the Euro. But Spain will have a much more compact schedule. If they reach the final they'll be playing their 7th match in 26 days whereas Brazil will be on match 7 in 27 days with an extra day of rest. If England is Spain's opponent they'll be on match 7 in 30 days. This could end up being Spain's downfall to allowing a 6th World Cup title for Brazil or perhaps a second for England after a 44 year wait.
Going right down the line of Round of 16 match-ups: Mexico over South Korea; England over Serbia; Paraguay over Denmark in a very close match; Brazil over Chile; Argentina over France; Germany over USA because they'll destroy us on set plays like they did in 2002; Italy over the Netherlands; Spain over Portugal.
Quarterfinals: England over Mexico; Brazil over Paraguay; Germany over Argentina; Spain over Italy
Semifinals: Brazil over England; Spain over Germany
Third place match: England over Germany
Final: Spain over Brazil
The number of things that can change the outcomes here is astounding, though. Whatever happens in group play - whether Netherlands finish first ahead of Denmark or Ivory Coast advances instead of Portugal - the bracket will more or less look the same from about the quarterfinals onward. The biggest difference would be a second place finish for Germany in Group D which would mean facing England in the Round of 16 and Argentina would likely be in the semifinal against Spain.
It all kicks off in about 13.5 hours.
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