Winning an Academy Award takes a kind of perfect storm confluence of events.
It's not just talent that will get you there. Just look at Al Pacino, who suffered 7 losses (including monumental performances in classic films such as The Godfather, Serpico and Dog Day Afternoon) before finally taking the prize for Scent of a Woman, the least deserving of all his nominated performances. Many people say the same for Paul Newman who finally won for The Color of Money.
Certainly talent plays a big part, but it's also necessary to have the right role. Most people recognize that certain roles are juicier than others, thus garnering more attention and awards. The key types include biographical characters, preferably heroic in some way (George C. Scott and Ben Kingsley); disabled (mentally or physically) individuals (Tom Hanks and Geoffrey Rush, among many others); going ugly or playing against type (Charlize Theron and Denzel Washington).
It also helps to be a fairly well-established actor to win the award. It is more common for women to win the Oscar for debut or early career performances than for men, but still, the vast majority of winners, particularly in the lead categories, are well-liked Hollywood actors.
The movie also has to be pretty good. Occasionally a great performance in a mediocre movie achieves a nomination, but scoring a win under such circumstances is next to impossible. It also has to be the right time in terms of several factors: often the right time in the actor's career and the right time in the release date calendar for the film to get noticed or not overshadowed by another (Crazy Heart was initially slated for an early 2010 release after which everyone would have forgotten poor Jeff Bridges by the time Oscars 2011 rolled around).
So you need the right actor in the right role in the right film at the right time. And then the actor has to hope there isn't some other actor with the right role in a better film at a better time. I'm fairly certain Al Pacino lost throughout the 70s simply because he was young. Voters would have assumed he'd have more opportunities with such talent. Additionally he was usually overshadowed by actors who had a better perfect storm and won (Art Carney; Jack Nicholson; Dustin Hoffman).
Keeping that in mind, I've made a list of eight actors working today who have yet to win an Oscar, but deserve one. Most have been previously nominated. I have little doubt that most of them will win someday, assuming they pull off that perfect storm.
Leonardo DiCaprio's first two lead roles, both arriving in 1993, are among the best of his career. He was nominated in a supporting role for What's Eating Gilbert Grape. This Boy's Life would have garnered him a lead nomination had he not already been a likely nominee in the supporting category. Since then he's received two more well earned nominations for The Aviator and Blood Diamond. But consider some of his other remarkable work that wasn't even nominated: Catch Me If You Can, The Departed and Revolutionary Road (an astounding trifecta of brilliant acting). Shutter Island and Gangs of New York are worth mentioning as well. Look for him next in this summer's Inception directed by Christopher Nolan. Still only 35 years old, DiCaprio is sure to win his Oscar eventually.
Edward Norton made his feature film debut (Primal Fear) in 1996 and earned an Oscar nomination. He also appeared in two other films later that year. Next up was a one-two punch in 1998 with Rounders and American History X and a nomination for the latter. Then came Fight Club and he continued to do interesting work over the next few years until he turned in one of his best performances in 25th Hour without even so much as a nomination. Since then his script choices have been hit-or-miss. I have little doubt Norton will one day hold a gold statue of his own.
Few actors work as much as the lovely Julianne Moore. Since her feature debut in 1990, she has averaged between 2 and 3 films a year and has had 3 years in which she appeared in at least 4 feature films. In 1999 she made it 5, each role a lead or supporting (no cameos or bit parts) part, and was Oscar nominated in the lead category for The End of the Affair. Her first nod came from 1997's Boogie Nights and she was double nominated in 2003 for Far From Heaven and The Hours. Many expected her to earn her fifth nomination this year for A Single Man despite appearing in only two scenes. She's not a flashy actress so it's difficult to single out any particular standout performances. She's a consummate professional and at age 49 she's unfortunately reached the so-called dead zone for Hollywood actresses. Her output level has dropped slightly in the last year or so because she wants to spend more time with her children. Let's hope she doesn't accidentally pass up her Oscar winning script.
Laura Linney has been around since Lorenzo's Oil in 1992, but didn't get a lot of recognition until nabbing the part of Meryl Burbank (the title character's wife) in The Truman Show opposite Jim Carrey. She followed that up two years later with a great performance and her first Oscar nomination in You Can Count on Me opposite Mark Ruffalo (see below). She's been consistently good in the likes of Mystic River, Kinsey (her second nomination), The Squid and the Whale and The Savages (third nomination). She won the Golden Globe portraying Abigail Adams in the HBO mini-series "John Adams". Assuming the right material comes her way, she'll get her Oscar one day.
Paul Giamatti first entered my radar with small roles in three films in 1998, each one demonstrating his wonderful talent. Not having the looks of a traditional leading man, it took several years of grinding away at small roles in big films before he landed the role of Harvey Pekar in the 2003 indie American Splendor. Widely regarded as a shoe-in for an Oscar nomination, he was famously snubbed. The following year he played the lead in the very popular Sideways. Though that film nabbed 5 Oscar nominations, including nods for two of his co-stars, Giamatti was snubbed for a second year in a row. And everyone said that year he was guaranteed a nomination after the previous year's snub. He finally earned a nod for his supporting role in Ron Howard's Cinderella Man, a small consolation for the shameful voting of Academy members. Like his co-star above, he also won the Golden Globe for the lead role in "John Adams". Giamatti is the kind of actor who will continue choosing projects of his liking and he seems content not to get wide recognition. For that reason it's likely he'll never walk to the podium, but we'll continue enjoying his work all the same.
I once had the great pleasure of seeing Brenda Blethyn on Broadway. She was a veteran of British television and 2 minor film roles before earning her first Oscar nomination for the incredible Secrets & Lies directed by Mike Leigh. She received her second nod only two years later for Little Voice but hasn't been on the ballot since. That's no cause for alarm as she continues working consistently and turning in excellent performances. She is the go-to actress for pivotal matronly roles in British drama (Pride and Prejudice; Atonement), although she does comedy quite well (Saving Grace). She's 64, so she hasn't got much time left to grab an Oscar. I'd say it's unlikely, but you never know. She's capable and she's got some Oscar pedigree.
Here's an actor with tremendous talent who has mostly squandered it since breaking into Hollywood with the Joel Schumacher directed Tigerland in 2000. Colin Farrell first came to my attention in Minority Report where I thought he was simply fantastic in his brief role. I'd never seen an actor more relaxed with both his body and dialogue. Unfortunately he followed those performances with sub-standard Hollywood pap: The Recruit; Daredevil; S.W.A.T. Then came the abysmal Alexander. He got good notices a couple of years ago for both Cassandra's Dream and In Bruges. He's got a role in a new Peter Weir film scheduled for release sometime this year. If he stops making poor choices in the films he makes, I've no doubt he'll win his Oscar.
Before his star making turn in the above-mentioned You Can Count on Me, Mark Ruffalo hadn't done much of anything notable. But with the opening of that movie in 2000 there were some who hailed him as the next Marlon Brando. The promise still hasn't really been fulfilled, but he continues to show real talent occasionally. Roles in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and this year's Shutter Island have highlighted his abilities, but not enough to even earn a nomination thus far. I'm not quite ready to write him off yet. I think he's still got a great performance in him.
25.4.11 update: Read part II of this list.
A blog mostly dedicated to cinema (including both new and old film reviews; commentary; and as the URL suggests - movie lists, although it has been lacking in this area to be honest), but on occasion touching on other areas of personal interest to me.
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