Where possible spoilers are mentioned, those are what I think will take the place of any incorrect predictions I make.
Not counting the Foreign Language Film and Documentary Feature categories I've got 33 different films earning nominations. That's about consistent with recent years' numbers. I've got Lincoln getting the most nominations with 12, followed 9 for Zero Dark Thirty and 8 for Les Miserables, then 5 each for Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, and Skyfall.
Nominations will be announced the morning of Thursday, January 10.
Picture
A tougher category to predict now that the number of nominees can range from 5 to 10. I think there's a strong enough core of films that there are likely to be a full 10 nominees this year, which is what I'm predicting. I think the first 5 are locked in for nominations.
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Les Miserables
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Life of Pi
7. The Impossible
8. Amour
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild
10. Django Unchained
spoilers
Moonrise Kingdom
The Master
Skyfall
Director
1. Ben Affleck - Argo
2. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
3. Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
4. Ang Lee - Life of Pi
5. Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
spoilers
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Michael Haneke - Amour
Actress
One of the toughest years for this category. The top two on my list are locks without a doubt. After that it gets murky. I don't feel all that confident in any of my other three selections. I would feel more sure of putting Cotillard on my list, but I'm taking a risk. Also, I felt personally that Mirren was so good in her movie that she can't be ignored. So much depends on the amount of total love felt throughout the Academy for Beasts of the Southern Wild. Wallis has a good shot at the nomination if the actors (the largest branch of the Academy) respond strongly to the film.
1. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
2. Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
3. Naomie Watts - The Impossible
4. Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
5. Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
spoilers
Helen Mirren - HitchcockRachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea
Actor
Only the fifth spot is unsure for me. I'm going out on a limb and suggesting that there are really only 6 true contenders. Jamie Foxx is on a lot of lists, but I just don't think so.
1. Daniel Day Lewis - Lincoln
2. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
3. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
4. John Hawkes - The Sessions
5. Denzel Washington - Flight
spoilers
Joaquin Phoenix - The MasterSupporting Actress
This is always such a weak category and this year is no exception. Hathaway has been the projected winner of this award since long before Les Miserables even opened. That illustrates how limited the category is. Sally Field is her only real competition. I can't believe Helen Hunt is in serious contention for a nomination. She simply didn't come close to impressing me this year. She's a mediocre movie star who got lucky with the right role opposite a great movie star 15 years ago and won an Oscar for it.
My top three are locks in my opinion. The final two spots are slightly more up for grabs, although I'm almost willing to call Adams a lock. I have not yet seen Ann Dowd's or Nicole Kidman's performances that have been mentioned as contenders for this award, so it's hard to say how the votes will swing. But the total lack of overall buzz for either of those films leads me to believe they will not make the list. So my final spot really could go to any of 5 women, with Weaver's inclusion being entirely dependent on a runaway for Silver Linings Playbook.
1. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
2. Sally Field - Lincoln
3. Helen Hunt - The Sessions
4. Amy Adams - The Master
5. Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
spoilers
Judi Dench - SkyfallAnn Dowd - Compliance
Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
Supporting Actor
Jones is probably the only dead lock I would call in this category. The final four slots could go several different ways, but I feel very confident in Hoffman, who was very good as always, and Waltz, whose excellent performance simply can't go unrewarded. The last two are the difficult calls. McConaughey had a real renaissance this year with critically lauded performances in no fewer than 3 films. That could mean splitting the vote leaving him with nothing. Henry is depending on love for his movie as is Bardem. Despite the SAG nomination, I just don't see an action film getting any acting nominations.
1. Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
3. Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
4. Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
5. Alan Arkin - Argo
spoilers
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike
Javier Bardem - Skyfall
Adapted Screenplay
I feel pretty confident about this list of 5.
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Beasts of the Southern Wild
spoilers
Les Miserables
The Sessions
Life of Pi
Original Screenplay
A more difficult category than Adapted Screenplay. There are 8 strong contenders here.
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master
Amour
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
spoilers
Flight
Arbitrage
Looper
Animated Feature
The first three for sure.
Frankenweenie
Wreck-It Ralph
Brave
ParaNorman
From Up on Poppy Hill
spoilers
Rise of the Guardians
Hotel Transylvania
The Painting
Foreign Language Film
It's a damn shame The Intouchables played too early in the season to make a dent because I thought it was one of the best movies of the year with two outstanding performances. It should be nominated for Actor, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay and possibly even Picture, but I don't see it picking up anything but a nomination here.
Amour
The Intouchables
A Royal Affair
No
Kon-Tiki
other shortlisted films
Sister
War Witch
The Deep
Beyond the Hills
Documentary Feature
Searching for Sugar Man
Bully
How to Survive a Plague
The Gatekeepers
The Invisible War
other shortlisted films
Detropia
5 Broken Cameras
This Is Not a Film
The Waiting Room
Ai Wei Wei: Never Sorry
The Imposter
Chasing Ice
Ethel
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
The House I Live In
Film Editing
Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Skyfall
spoilers
Les Miserables
The Master
The Dark Knight Rises
Silver Linings Playbook
Flight
Cinematography
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Skyfall
The Dark Knight Rises
The Master
spoilers
ArgoDjango Unchained
Life of Pi
Samsara
Production Design
It's really hard not to seriously consider Dark Shadows in at least one category. Only two Tim Burton-directed films have failed to get a single Oscar nomination. His films tend to be nominated in technical categories like this and Costume Design, Makeup, and Score.
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
spoilers
The Master
A Royal Affair
Dark Shadows
Costume Design
It's really hard not to seriously consider Dark Shadows in at least one category. Only two Tim Burton-directed films have failed to get a single Oscar nomination. His films tend to be nominated in technical categories like this and Production Design, Makeup, and Score.
I also think a really good case should be made for Argo for getting the period dress perfect in the details without screaming "late 1970's." That's why this category is always dominated by early period films or fantasy/science fiction.
Lincoln
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Mirror Mirror
Dark Shadows
spoilers
Cloud Atlas
Snow White and the Huntsman
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Django Unchained
Original Score
As usual, Alexandre Desplat has been incredibly prolific, scoring 6 films that are in contention for some kind of Oscar. He's got two with good shots at nominations.
Lincoln - John Williams
Life of Pi - Mychael Danna
Anna Karenina - Dario Marianelli
Zero Dark Thirty - Alexandre Desplat
Beasts of the Southern Wild - Dan Romer and Benh Zeitlin
spoilers
The Master - Johnny Greenwood
Argo - Alexandre Desplat
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Howard Shore
The Dark Knight Rises - Hans Zimmer
Skyfall - Thomas Newman
Original Song
It turns out I didn't realize the Academy rules had changed this year for this category. It's gone back to a full 5 nominees instead of 2 to 5 nominees based on a scoring system by a select committee.
"Suddenly" from Les Miserables
"Skyfall" from Skyfall
"Ancora Qui" from Django Unchained
"Learn Me Right" from Brave
"Still Alive" from Paul Williams Still Alive
spoilers
"Song for the Lonely Mountain" from The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"Freedom" from Django Unchained
"From Here to the Moon and Back" from Joyful Noise
Makeup and Hairstyling
Lincoln
Men in Black 3
Hitchcock
other shortlisted films
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Looper
Snow White and the Huntsman
Sound Mixing
Les Miserables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
spoilers
Lincoln
Argo
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
The Amazing Spider Man
Life of Pi
Flight
Sound Editing
Zero Dark Thirty
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Skyfall
spoilers
Django Unchained
The Amazing Spider Man
Looper
The Bourne Legacy
Flight
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi
Visual Effects
Life of Pi
Cloud Atlas
The Avengers
Snow White and the Huntsman
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Prometheus
The Dark Knight Rises
John Carter
Skyfall
The Amazing Spider Man
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