Predictions in all categories are listed in the likelihood I believe they have for a nomination
Picture
Let's start off with the deadlock guarantees:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
The category can have anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees. Since they started that practice for the 84th Awards there have always been either 8 or 9 nominees. Because of the preferential voting system the Academy uses in this category, it is very difficult to wind up with 10 nominees.
My next three are very safe bets:
Get Out
The Post
Call Me By Your Name
After that it gets murkier. I'm going with a 9 nominee field this year rounded out by:
I, Tonya
The Florida Project
I'm going out on a limb with that last one. Darkest Hour is probably more likely to be nominated than either of my last two picks and The Big Sick has a strong following, but I just can't believe enough people will stand behind those mediocre films masquerading as great.